Sunday, August 07, 2005

When should we start being really scared?

As an non-economist, when should we start being scared?

1) We have a household savings rate of 0%.

2) Huge deficits in both current account and government, to the tune of several hundred billion a year.

3) A spookily-flat yield curve (my bank will loan me at <6% for 30 years, but will borrow from me at ~3.8% for just 9 months!), which says that some huge amount of long term money is amazingly optimistic.

4) A real-estate market in areas that is so horribly bubbled that tax-adjusted interest, property tax, and HOA/maintinence is vastly more (30%+) than rent.

5) and a government in total denial.

When should us normals start being really, REALLY scared? As Kent Brockman asks on the Simpsons: "Is now the time to panic?"